IMPACT OF SO2 EMISSION LIMITS ON PETROLEUM REFINERY OPERATIONS III: UNCERTAINTIES
A. K. DIKSHIT
AbstractThe previous two parts of this article developed the linear programming (LP) model, applied it to an existing refinery, and presented a methodology for minimizing SO2 emissions. In this article, the issue of uncertainties in percent sulfur in different feed and blending streams, which lead to uncertainties in estimates of SO2 emission and refinery profitability, is discussed. It is also based on the linear programming model of the same refinery discussed in first part of this study. A stochastic method is used to generate inputs to the LP model to simulate the randomness of real-life operations. The results show that for the typical refinery considered, the SO2 emission estimate has a standard deviation of 8.4 kg/hr at the mean SO2 emission rate of 520 kg/hr. The refinery profit for the same refinery shows a standard deviation of 3.1 million Rs/month on a mean value of 283.7 million Rs/month.
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