Modeling Total Vehicle Emissions on a Regional Level

Helman I. Stern
Patrick A. Petrella
Elmar R. Altwicker

DOI: 10.2190/MEY8-B9AF-E802-H5R8


This paper presents a dynamic mathematical model for the projection of total annual emissions of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides from mobile sources in urban regions. The model consists of three subsystems, 1) vehicle population, 2) vehicle activity, 3) vehicle emissions rates. The model is applied through the use of four separate vehicle emission compliance schedules to the Albany-Schenectady-Troy Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA), based on 1964-1970 data. Emission projections for the period 1971-1990 are shown in graphical form.

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