Socioeconomic Impacts of Rural Land Use Control: a Simulation Study

Thomas E. Dickinson
Seymour I. Schwartz

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DOI: 10.2190/VR55-DRTV-3AYX-85GQ

Abstract

The conversion of land for urban use is of concern not only at the urban fringe but also in the rural hinterlands, where large tracts have been subdivided and sold to urban residents for second homes or for speculation. To examine the consequences of policies for controlling rural land conversion, a systems dynamics model of land use and the economy of a rural California county was developed and simulated. The additional effects of reduced fuel availability on the tourist economy of the county are examined and the potential dangers and benefits of applying simulation methods to the policy making process are discussed.

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